Most of our decisions in life are based not on tests, but on hunches and limited information. We launch a new product, we change careers, or we try a new marketing approach—all without a single experiment. We blame a lack of resources for skipping the testing but don’t recognize the costs of new approaches that end up failing. Even when we conduct tests, we perform superficial dress rehearsals that double as exercises in self-deception. We conduct tests—not to prove ourselves wrong, but to confirm what we believe is true. We tweak the testing conditions or interpret ambiguous outcomes to
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