Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life

by Ozan Varol

By vividly visualizing a doomsday scenario, we come up with potential problems and determine how to avoid them. According to research, premortems increase by 30 percent the ability of participants to correctly determine the reasons for a future outcome.63 If you’re a business leader, a premortem might focus on a product you’re currently designing. You would assume the product failed and then work backward to determine the potential reasons. Perhaps you didn’t test the product properly or it wasn’t the right fit for your market. If you’re a job candidate, a premortem might involve an interview. You would assume you didn’t get the job and generate as many reasons as possible for the failure. Perhaps you were late for the interview. Perhaps a difficult question about why you left your previous job stumped you. You then figure out how to avoid those potential pitfalls. Think of premortems as the opposite of backcasting, which we explored in the chapter on moonshot thinking. Backcasting works backward from a desired outcome. A premortem works backward from an undesired outcome. It forces you to think about what could go wrong before you act. When you conduct a premortem and think through what can go wrong, you should assign probabilities to each potential problem.64 If you quantify uncertainty ahead of time—there’s a 50 percent chance that your new product might fail—you’re more likely to recognize the role that luck played in any resulting success. Quantifying uncertainty can ...