Mindf*ck: Cambridge Analytica and the Plot to Break America

by Christopher Wylie

For example, the psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman conducted a study that asked participants a very simple question: “Suppose you sample a word at random from an English text. Is it more likely that the word starts with a k, or that k is the third letter?” Most people responded with the former, that words that start with k (e.g., kitchen, kite, or kilometer) are more likely. However, the opposite is true, and one is actually twice as likely in a typical English text to encounter words where the third letter is a k, such as ask, like, make, joke, or take. They tested for five letters (k, l, n, r, and v) like this. It is easier for people to think of words by first letter because we are taught to organize (or alphabetize) words by their first letter. However, people conflate this ease of recall with frequency or probability, even when this is far from the truth. This cognitive bias is called the availability heuristic, and is just one of many biases that affect our thinking. The bias is why, for example, people who see more news reports of violent murders on the news tend to think that society is becoming more violent when in fact global murder rates have been declining overall during the last quarter century.