Most campaigns can be boiled down to two core operations: persuasion and turnout. The turnout, or “GOTV” (get out the vote), universe is those people who likely support the candidate but do not always vote. The persuasion universe is the inverse, representing those who likely will vote but do not always support the party. People who are either very unlikely to vote or very unlikely to ever support us are put into an exclusion universe, as there is no point in engaging them. Voters who are both very likely to support the candidate and very likely to vote—these are the “base” voters, and they
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