Magnitude Average Century Next Century 8–9 ~ 1 in 200 ~ 1 in 200 9+ (e.g. Toba) ~ 1 in 800 ~ 1 in 800 Table 3.2 The probability per century of a supervolcanic eruption. Note that there are good reasons to think that even the largest eruptions would be very unlikely to lead to extinction or unrecoverable collapse. The probability estimates are extremely rough, with the confidence interval for magnitude 8–9 eruptions ranging from 1 in 50 to 1 in 500 per century, and the confidence interval for magnitude 9+ ranging from 1 in 600 all the way to 1 in 60,000.
