The numbers represent my overall degrees of belief that each of the catastrophes will befall us this century. This means they aren’t simply an encapsulation of the information and argumentation in the chapters on the risks. Instead, they rely on an accumulation of knowledge and judgement on each risk that goes beyond what can be distilled into a few pages. They are not in any way a final word, but are a concise summary of all I know about the risk landscape.
