Crunching numbers on the return to education is not like measuring Planck’s constant. All our calculations require guesswork, yielding averages or “expected values,” not precise predictions. But don’t be alarmed. Whenever possible, guesswork builds on canonical data and careful academic research. Such data and research are available for every major building block in the calculations. For minor building blocks, however, data and research are often thin. Rather than pleading agnosticism—as academics are wont to do—I use my best judgment. If my “best judgment” on a component of the calculation
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