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February 15 - February 22, 2021
description-experience gap.
asking yourself what is the other man going to think I mean to do,”
if you want to improve your odds, understand probabilities; if you want a sure thing, rig the deck.
Mayfair Club,
When it comes to learning, Triumph is the real foe; it’s Disaster that’s your teacher. It’s Disaster that brings objectivity. It’s Disaster that’s the antidote to that greatest of delusions, overconfidence. And ultimately, both Triumph and Disaster are impostors. They are results that are subject to chance. One of them just happens to be a better teaching tool than the other.
If you’re skeptical of any prescriptive advice to begin with, if “less certainty, more inquiry” is your guiding light, not only will you listen; you will adjust. You will grow. And if that’s not self-awareness and self-discipline, I don’t know what is.
Polgar sisters,
“wicked”: there’s a mismatch between action and feedback because of external noise.
EPT
big blind,
check-raising
Hannah Riley Bowles,
When women act in a more feminine, less confrontational way, we aren’t being shy or stupid. We are being smart. We are reacting to the realities of the world, knowing that to fail to do so is to incur potentially life-changing penalties. We are socialized into our passivity. After all, don’t we want to be liked . . . so that we will be hired and make money and make a living?
Edward Gibbon warned about as far back as 1794, that “the laws of probability, so true in general, [are] so fallacious in particular”—a
Fresh air, sky, water, trees: these are the elements of clearheadedness.
“Language is the mother, not the handmaiden of thought; words will tell you things you never thought or felt before.”
The Master and Margarita,
nut flush.
At the same time, you want to “unblock” their bluffs—that is, not hold any cards that interact with the hands they may fold.
???
pocket aces—but
“The good thing about poker is there’s enough luck that you never have to admit it’s your fault you lost.”)
“Where observation is concerned, chance favors only the prepared mind.”
vinyasa,
qigong
the most difficulty we cause ourselves is kind of fighting against the grain of what is healthy for us.”
Seidelian
obsidian
omission neglect,
(David Dunning, a psychologist at the University of Michigan most famous for being one half of the Dunning-Kruger effect—the more incompetent you are, the less you’re aware of your incompetence—has found that people go quickly from being circumspect beginners, who are perfectly aware of their limitations, to “unconscious incompetents,” people who no longer realize how much they don’t know and instead fancy themselves quite proficient.)
Zero Mostel
embodied cognition:
psilocybin
chuffed.
nut flush
“hangry”—and
overcards
flush draw—but
“Denying luck individually is to suggest that we have much greater agency than we really have over outcomes in our lives.”
rebuy,’
nocebo
PioSolver—would
set of jacks
pocket queens.
“Shove AA!”
the stone bubble
Red Rock
“In every tablet there are as many grains of luck as of any other drug. Even intelligence is rather an accident of Nature, and to say that an intelligent man deserves his rewards in life is to say that he is entitled to be lucky.” E. B. WHITE, 1943
MRA.
That life is uncertain. That we can’t know everything. That we can’t control it all, no matter how much we think we may be able to.
“Most people are never going to die because they are never going to be born,” Richard Dawkins
