That Will Never Work: The Birth of Netflix and the Amazing Life of an Idea

by Marc Randolph

Nobody. Knows. Anything. According to Goldman, those three words are the key to understanding everything about Hollywood. Nobody really knows how well a movie is going to do…until after it’s already done it. For instance, how is it possible that you can have a film directed by an Academy Award–winning director (Michael Cimino), starring a best-actor Academy Award winner (Christopher Walken), with a can’t-miss script and a $50 million budget…and end up with Heaven’s Gate, one of the biggest Hollywood flops of all time? On the other hand, how can you have a film with a first-time director, a handful of amateur actors, no script at all, a budget under $50,000…and end up with The Blair Witch Project, which, after grossing more than $250 million, is one of the most successful independent films of all time? There’s a simple explanation. It’s because Nobody Knows Anything. And it’s not just in Hollywood. It’s true in Silicon Valley, too. “Nobody Knows Anything” isn’t an indictment. It’s a reminder. An encouragement.

Nobody. Knows. Anything. True with start-ups and new ideas!