We can only do so much to answer questions on our own. We are only exposed to the information we encounter, only live the experiences limited to our personal lives, and only think of the hypothesis that we can conceive of. As a result, it can be hard to know what reasons someone else could have for believing something different. The best cure for overconfidence in your beliefs is to constantly remind yourself that you have experienced less than a tiny fraction of a percent of what has happened in the world. This experience, however, ends up representing nearly 100 percent of how you believe
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