Maru Kun

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Three of the flips end up in a head, and in two of these the coin is two-headed. So your probability that the chosen coin is two-headed rather than fair should be 2⁄3, and not ½. Essentially, seeing a head makes it more likely that the two-headed coin has been chosen, since this coin provides two opportunities for a head to land face-up, whereas the fair coin only provides one.
The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data
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