Suppose I have a coin, and I ask you for your probability that it will come up heads. You happily answer ‘50:50’, or similar. Then I flip it, cover up the result before either of us sees it, and again ask for your probability that it is heads. If you are typical of my experience, you may, after a pause, rather grudgingly say ‘50:50’. Then I take a quick look at the coin, without showing you, and repeat the question. Again, if you are like most people, you eventually mumble ‘50:50’. This simple exercise reveals a major distinction between two types of uncertainty: what is known as aleatory
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