The uncertainties were daunting, the assumptions dubious, slamming into the same analytical obstacles that plagued the architects of the first-strike plan during the Berlin crisis or, for that matter, all the real-life musings on the theory of counterforce: Would the Soviets read the signals correctly? Could they respond in kind, if they wanted to—and would they want to? What if they retaliated with a larger nuclear attack, or with no nuclear attack at all? What would the next move be? How does a president or a commander end the war on favorable terms?
