Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All

by Michael Shellenberger

Claims that the extinction rate is accelerating and that “half a million terrestrial species . . . may already be doomed to extinction” rest upon something called species area model. Conservation biologists Robert H. MacArthur and E. O. Wilson created the model in 1967. This model rests on the assumption that the number of new species that migrate to an island would decline over time. The idea was that as more species competed for declining resources, fewer would survive.6 Fortunately, the assumptions of the species area model proved to be wrong. In 2011, the British scientific journal Nature published an article titled “Species-Area Relationships Always Overestimate Extinction Rates from Habitat Loss.” It showed that extinctions “require greater loss of habitat than previously thought.”7 Around the world, the biodiversity of islands has actually doubled on average, thanks to the migration of “invasive species.” The introduction of new plant species has outnumbered plant extinctions one hundred fold.8 The “invaders” didn’t crowd out “natives,” as Wilson and MacArthur feared.