Inside every model are two important things: Necessary conditions (separated by & operators) and substitutes (separated by OR operators). The simplest way to lower risks is to remove a necessary condition. Remove a necessary condition, and the bad thing has a probability of zero. A lot of the time, you can’t do that. So instead, you layer on low-likelihood necessary conditions. If you can’t do that, you create fallbacks. So you can react to bad things before they get worse. Making good things happen is the other side of risk. Good things happening are the reason we take the risk of bad things
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