In its fascinating study, Monopoly Politics, FairVote.org explains, “The outcome of more than 80 percent of U.S. House races can be predicted with near certainty years ahead of the election. In 2012 and 2014 House elections, our model made “high-confidence” projections in 701 contests (80.5 percent of all races), and was correct in all but one. Two days after the 2014 elections we issued our high-confidence projections for 2016 in five of six races with 100 percent accuracy.”
