Tools and Weapons: The Promise and the Peril of the Digital Age

by Brad Smith

quaint,

Even

As some have noted, jobs are a bundle of tasks. Some tasks can be automated, while others cannot.11

As Rick Rashid, a former head of Microsoft Research, observed only half-jokingly several years ago, a lot more people now spend a lot more time in meetings.

But unfortunately, the future, like the past, is messy. No one is clairvoyant.

When he said that AI would soon replace human interpreters, he paused for a moment, realized what he had said, and turned to the interpreter. “Sorry,” he said. The interpreter didn’t skip a beat. “Don’t worry,” she calmly replied. “Someone from IBM told me the same thing twenty years ago, and I’m still here.”

Lol!

checkered.

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years

and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”

In a similar vein, it would be a mistake to assume that technology trends such as automation and the use of artificial intelligence will be driven by technology and economics alone. Individuals, companies, and even countries will make choices based on cultural values that will manifest themselves in everything from individual consumer preferences to broader political trends that lead to new laws and regulations.

This all leads to an interesting question. When New Yorkers saw the first automobile roll down the street in the nation’s financial capital, how many predicted that the invention would lead to the creation of new jobs in the financial sector?

we concluded that success has always required that people master four skills: learning about new topics and fields; analyzing and solving new problems; communicating ideas and sharing information with others; and collaborating effectively as part of a team.

American thought is often based in part on philosophies developed in ancient Greece, while Chinese thinking is founded on the teachings of Confucius and his followers.

hark

the Greek philosophy that remains the foundation of Western political thought

a sense that people “were in charge of their own lives and free to act as they chose.”

called AI Superpowers

“the AI world order will combine winner-take-all economics with an unprecedented concentration of wealth in the hands of a few companies in China and the United States.”

“AI naturally gravitates toward monopolies . . . once a company has jumped out to an early lead, this kind of ongoing repeating cycle can turn that lead into an insurmountable barrier to entry for other firms.”

Any new social media platform that wants to take on Facebook encounters the same problem today. It’s part of what defeated Google Plus.

AI depends upon cloud-based computing power, the development of algorithms, and mountains of data.

Some may choose to collect and consolidate data on their own platform and offer access to their insights as a technology or consulting service.

But once you ask the question, one part of the answer becomes clear: Governments will need to work together.

inexorable

Technology innovation is not going to slow down. The work to manage it needs to speed up.