Humble Pi: When Math Goes Wrong in the Real World
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Read between March 25 - March 30, 2021
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All humans are stupid when it comes to learning formal mathematics. This is the process of taking what evolution has given us and extending our skills beyond what is reasonable.
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If you want something unlikely to occur, you simply need the patience to create enough opportunities to allow it to happen.
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the false positives of assuming there is a danger when there isn’t are usually not punished as severely as when a human underestimates a risk and gets eaten. The selection pressure is not on accuracy. Wrong and alive is evolutionarily better than correct and dead.
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In general, it’s amazing what you can prove if you’re prepared to ignore enough data.
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It is a mathematical certainty that you can find any pattern you want, as long as you’re prepared to ignore enough data that does not match.
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A correlation is never enough to argue that one thing is causing another.