When I want to trade a recent IPO, I usually just watch it for a couple of weeks, to get a better feel for how it is trading. If I feel that the S&P 500 is about to go down, I will often short a recent IPO that has a small float (assuming that I am able to borrow the shares to short). If the S&P 500 goes down 10%, a new IPO might go down 50-75%. Likewise, if the S&P 500 has been going down for a few months and my indicators tell me that it is near a bottom, I will often buy a recent IPO with a small float. If the S&P 500 rallies 10% off its lows, a new IPO could go up more than 100%.
