The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds

by Daniel M. Gerstein

First and foremost, the structured way of thinking about technology in the form of the S-curve and Brian Arthur’s evolutionary technology principles provide the bedrock for thinking about future technology development. Second, risks are inherent in any research and development. Scientific discovery is not without dangers. The path to developing successful technologies is not linear and may result in many twists and turns before a technology can be put to practical use. Along the way, technologists would do well to consider the effects of the three D’s (disruptive, democratized, and dual-use technologies). Disruptive technologies can make others—including well-entrenched incumbents—obsolete almost overnight. Democratization will continue to lead to the erosion of technological superiority and increase technology diffusion. All technologies are dual use and should be considered for both their societal benefits and their potential for malicious use. Finally, the question of technology connectedness versus disconnectedness will continue to plague the science and technology communities. Natural tensions exist between those desiring to gain fundamental understanding of natural phenomena versus others from operational communities, who will seek to see science and technology applied toward practical uses.