The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds

by Daniel M. Gerstein

So how might this technology assessment framework be employed? First, an individual technology can be examined over time to assess how it has evolved and is likely to evolve in the future. For example, in one analysis I led at RAND, specific biotechnologies were examined in 2000, 2018, and 2030 to look at the past, present, and future periods. By examining the past and current trends, one could extrapolate into the future, in this case out to 2030. Second, examining an individual technology in this way could be useful in determining likely teaming partners for R&D projects. Understanding the relative advantages that each performer might bring to the R&D project could increase the potential for success. Third, this methodology could facilitate comparing various competing technologies to arrive at an assessment of which technology is most likely to complete a successful R&D process and transition. Certainly as the reader gains familiarity with the Technology Assessment Methodology, other applications are likely to be identified.