The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds

by Daniel M. Gerstein

development is not progressing, perhaps additional research or scientific discovery will be needed. This is what is implied when we talk about taking a technology back to earlier stages of research. Alternatively, the development of the technology could depend on other component technologies that need to be either matured or integrated to support further development of the primary technology under consideration. It is also possible that there is little or no demand for the technology—that is, users are not looking to have a technology for the practical application envisioned. Figure 3.1. The Technology S-Curve Third, as the technology matures, it will likely contribute to the understanding of other possible use cases. Initially, the technology may itself be developed as the primary application; however, secondary uses will inevitably be discovered. Technologies become building blocks for other technologies, with wide adoption expected for successful technologies. Consider how the basic technology of radio frequency and wave propagation, although many generations removed from its ancestors, has become an essential component in all wireless communications in use today. Fourth, should specifics of the technology development become known or other similar technology development efforts occur in parallel, it is possible that a technology “pull” will take place. Such a demand signal could propel the development of a related or building-block technology. For example, the continuou...