The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds

by Daniel M. Gerstein

and increasing user demand. In the case of the cell phone, companies are adding capabilities to attract customers, and in turn, these new capabilities result in a new demand signal placed on the industry by consumers. Another example of technology continuing to evolve in response to a practical need is gene editing. While gene editing has been around since the 1970s, using techniques such as zinc finger nucleases and transcription activator-like effector nucleases, these methods required a great deal of skill and knowledge and were not particularly rapid or accurate. The development of CRISPR-Cas9 essentially changed the world of gene editing by developing commercially available kits that provide speed, precision, and accuracy to manipulate a genomic sequence. The success of CRISPR is leading to the development of more gene editing tools with even greater capabilities.2 Fifth, a technology will reach the point of diminishing returns. Over time, when a technology is reaching full maturity, the rate of increase in performance will begin to slow. In our S-curve model, the cost for incremental improvements in performance becomes prohibitive. This would likely be the point at which the prudent technologist and his investor decide to withhold additional resources for further technology development. It is also at this point in the technology life cycle that several valuations of the technology are possible. The technology could be determined to be mature and not likely to benefit...