The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds

by Daniel M. Gerstein

During the initial stages of technology development, progress would likely be measured in very small, incremental understandings or improvements. It might also be measured in a multitude of failures that serve as lessons that can eventually be applied to mastering the development of the technology. Over time and with continued effort (and assuming no one is attempting to violate fundamental laws of physics), the technology will mature and reach an inflection point at which the rate of change in performance begins to accelerate. During this exponential change, several occurrences will likely be observed. First, less effort will be required to gain increases in performance. This does not imply that now is the time to stop providing resources to the technology development. Rather, it signifies that achieving increases in performance will be less costly in this phase of technology development. In other words, fewer resources will be required per unit of increase in performance. This is a good thing, as it means the technology is beginning to mature. Second, progress along the S-curve will likely continue unless impeded in some way. Examples could include cases in which the technology is not feasible, other technologies may be required to support the development efforts, adequate resources are not available, or perhaps there is no demand for the technology. In cases where technology