Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America

by Scott Adams

If you have a negative word for something, it’s easier to avoid it than if you don’t.

By now you might be wondering why I counsel against calling people stupid while at the same time I introduce the word loserthink, which seems just as bad. The difference is that stupid refers to a person whereas loserthink applies to the technique.

In other words, the only way one could be dead certain that the consensus of scientists is right on any topic that can’t be replicated in a controlled experiment, or proven true by math, is by ignoring the entire fields of psychology, economics, history, and—if you are older—your own experience.

If you are dismissing your critics with labels they would not assign to themselves, you might be engaged in loserthink.

If your criticism depends on assigning labels instead of cause-and-effect reasoning, you are engaged in loserthink.

Humans aren’t good fact-checkers. As evidence of that claim, see every discussion of politics ever.

the one thing we know for sure is that being right and being wrong feel exactly the same to all of us. We can’t tell the difference. If we could, everyone would agree on everything important.

For example, if you believe a political situation will unfold in a certain way, make a specific prediction and write it in a diary, share it on social media, or tell a loved one who is likely to later remind you if you are wrong. The important thing here is to commit to predictions based on your worldview and make a big deal about them so they are harder to forget. Put your predictions into the world outside your head so you have a chance of checking them later without the problem of selective memory.

Note how other people’s embarrassments mean little to you when you are an observer. That’s how much your embarrassments mean to them: nothing.

We humans are a skeptical bunch, and we often think someone or some entity is running a scam on us. Unfortunately, we are often right. But at least half the time, based on my observation, we think a conspiracy exists when there are perfectly normal explanations for events.

As a rule, we can’t always tell the difference between the people who are far smarter than us and the people who are dumber. Both groups make choices we can’t understand.

If you’re a weirdo in any way (and I say this with love), you can probably find similar weirdos if you stop hiding.

As a general rule, it’s always smarter to criticize people who aren’t around.

When it comes to your personal life, business life, and political opinions, it makes sense to favor systems over goals whenever that is practical. A goal gives you one way to win, whereas a system can surface lots of winning paths, some of which you never could have imagined.

if we take a firm position on a topic, we are unlikely to change our minds even when facts emerge that debunk our initial belief.

The secret to thwarting couch lock of any sort is to stop imagining everything you need to do, and start imagining the smallest step that you can do without much real effort. If you feel you can’t talk yourself into standing up and doing something that needs to get done, talk yourself into moving your pinky finger. Then move it. As you move your pinky, you will immediately regain the sense of agency over your body that had been temporarily missing. Moving your pinky finger is easy no matter how stoned, tired, depressed, or unmotivated you are. Do what you can do, not what you can’t. Then build on the momentum.

People also make the mistake of not comparing proposed plans to the next best alternative. Sometimes the best plan has big problems, but not as big as the next best plan. If you are not explicitly comparing your preferred plan to the next best alternative, you are not involved in rational thinking. But it might feel as if you are.

One of the most common decision-making errors you see in politics involves ignoring either the costs or the benefits of major decisions. This might include supporting an idea that would be terrific if it were free, but is in fact something taxpayers would never support.

Political advocates focus on the costs of a plan when they hate it and the benefits when they like it.

We humans are not good at reading minds, but we often think we have that magical power.

Never be yourself if you can make yourself into something better through your conscious actions. You are what you do.

If someone does something you are happy about and you praise that person, you encourage more good behavior of the same kind. People like praise and recognition. Most of us are starving for it. Personally, I would probably steal a car if I thought someone would applaud me for it. Praise is an effective way to get more of what you want. The opposite is also true. When someone does something you appreciate, the best way to ruin that momentum is by asking why it didn’t happen sooner. That’s putting a penalty on good behavior. And you should expect anyone who gets treated with that sort of loserthink to be less likely to be helpful in the future.

If you see an increase in racism in your daily experience, that is a big red flag and you should not ignore it. But if the only place you see an uptick in racism is on the news or as reported by groups paid to find a lot of it, maintain some skepticism. In my opinion, based on living for several decades, racism in America has declined every year of my life. And next year looks good too.

If you don’t know the right way to do something, try doing it wrong, so long as it is not dangerous to do so. Doing things wrong is an excellent way to figure out how to do things right.

And I got to this place by being bad at nearly everything until I attracted enough free advice to make progress.

News that is reported the same by news outlets on both the left and the right is probably true. If you only see a story reported by news sites that lean in one direction, it probably isn’t true.

Note how other people’s embarrassments mean little to you when you are an observer. That’s how much your embarrassments mean to them: nothing.

The people you have judged to be angels might simply be better, or luckier, at getting away with their transgressions against humanity.

You can’t turn off your judging any more than a planet can turn off its own gravity. But what you can do is make a decision to judge people’s lesser transgressions by how they respond to their mistakes, as opposed to judging the mistakes.

Shorter version: You are what you do, not what you think.

Part of my thinking on this topic is influenced by the fact that people evolve to become whatever they say they are. If a bigot says in public often enough that racism is evil, the bigot is self-influencing himself to be less racist. We are better off encouraging insincere but positive opinions, because they are self-fulfilling to a degree. Reward what works. If you are getting the right actions, something is working, and it puts people on the path of faking it until it becomes real. I’ll take that situation over guessing what people are thinking and condemning them for it. We can’t have a successful culture based on condemning people for presumed thoughts.

The clearest signal you’re in a cult is that other members of the group actively try to prevent you from exchanging ideas with outsiders.

If your view of reality is consistent with the past but fails to do a good job predicting the near future, you might be in a cultlike organization with a manufactured worldview. If members of your group discourage you from listening to opposing views, it’s time to plan your escape.

Agree with people as much as you can without lying, and you will be in a better position to persuade.

It is more effective to accept minor criticisms while framing them as relatively unimportant.

THINGS TO REMEMBER Don’t engage in mind reading. It isn’t a human skill. Think of your ego as a tool, not your identity. Track your predictions to build up some useful humility about your worldview. Put yourself in embarrassing situations regularly to teach yourself there is no lasting pain. The past no longer exists. Don’t let your attachment to the past influence your decisions today. If you haven’t mentioned the next best alternative to your proposed plan, you haven’t said anything at all, and smart people would be wise to ignore you. If you are arguing over the definition of a word instead of the best way forward, you are not part of the productive world. If you are sure one variable is all you need to grasp a complicated topic, the problem is probably on your end. Occam’s razor (the idea that the simplest explanation is usually correct) is utter nonsense in the way it is commonly employed. We all think our opinions are the simplest explanations. Fairness cannot be obtained in most cases because of its subjective nature. The closest you can get is equal application of the law. If your argument depends on that one time something happened, you do not have an argument. You have a story. If your argument depends entirely on the so-called slippery slope, you don’t have much of an argument. Everything changes until there’s a reason for it to stop. Mowing your lawn is not a slippery slope to shaving your dog. Coincidences usually mean nothing. And they are the fuel of confirm...