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For 5,000 years, the Chinese have believed that the country is safe only when the centre is strong. A weak centre means confusion and chaos. A strong centre leads to a peaceful and prosperous China. Every Chinese understands that. It is their cardinal principle, drawn from deep-seated historical lessons. There will not be a deviation from this principle any time soon. It is a mindset that predates communism. It has existed for centuries, for millennia.
Wukan. The first is that the Communist Party retains its hold. Order is restored with the help of the party. The second lesson is how the party can use a mix of hard and soft measures to keep peace.
They know that opposing the central authority means certain annihilation.
even if it did happen, it will not result in one man, one vote. There will be a displacement of one set of leaders by another set of leaders, because culturally and historically, the belief in China is that a strong central authority leads to peace and prosperity.
One man, one vote has never been in China and has never produced a prosperous China. And they’re not going to try it.
For their young people, economic prospects have never been better, standards of living are being enhanced daily and China is strengthening as a nation. I don’t see them rocking the boat.
Also deeply ingrained in Chinese culture is a way of doing things that pays little heed to the rule of law or governance institutions. In Singapore, we have come to accept that we have to be like the West on this – to have legislatures deciding on the wording of laws and then to have independent courts and judges deciding what those words mean.
The Chinese have not accepted this, just as they have not accepted that when you sign an agreement, it’s final. For them, when you sign an agreement, it’s the beginning of a long friendship, and from time to time, as friends, you have to sort out whether one of you is making too much money and may need to cough up more.
In China, the man is bigger than the office.
China will evolve its institutions and systems, but in a distinctly Chinese way. Whatever their reforms, one thing will not change: they will retain a strong centre.
It’s no longer communist in the strict sense of the word. It’s just an old label on an old bottle into which new wine has been poured.
Each of the four preceding paramount leaders has left his own unique imprint. For Mao Zedong, it was perpetual revolutions. For Deng Xiaoping, it was reforming and opening up. For Jiang Zemin, it was consolidation and development. And for Hu Jintao, it was harmonious society – in particular, reducing the gap between the rich and the poor. What legacy will Xi leave?
Chinese leaders do not broadcast their future plans before assuming office. They prefer to keep their heads below the parapet. China
the heart of the matter is whether or not one believes China’s repeated guarantees that it seeks nothing more than a peaceful rise and that it will never become a hegemon.
The Chinese know that they need another 30 to 40 years of peace to catch up with the rest of the world. They have come to the conclusion that if they stay on course, avoid upsetting the existing powers and make friends with everybody, they can only grow stronger and stronger.
But I don’t see America ever going to war with the Chinese to keep Taiwan independent. It doesn’t pay.
Remember that no Chinese leader can survive if Taiwan is lost under his watch. So for the Chinese, it is a very serious matter. Even if they lose the first round, they will come back for a second round, then a third round and a fourth round – incessantly, until they win. It’s not worth it for America.
Reunification between Taiwan and the Mainland is a matter of time. No country can prevent it.
Vietnam has competing claims over areas of the sea where they expect to find gas and oil. We have no such overlapping claims with them.
The future of Taiwan is not determined by the wishes of the people of Taiwan. It is determined by the reality of the power equation between Taiwan and China and whether the Americans are prepared to intervene in the situation. It’s not taking a straw poll and deciding, yes, you’re going to have reunification or no, the majority are against it and therefore it’s off.
The survival of North Korea depends heavily on China.
But you are inculcating enormous pride and patriotism in your young in a restored China.
At the present moment they are trying to match the US at the high end – in space and military technology.
but if you are dependent on the US for your GPS and for rockets and so on, you can be outmanoeuvred. Space research, GPS systems – they are not a source of economic growth but they can provide the assurance that their economic growth cannot be tampered with by military action.
China needs to make the transition from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic consumption,
you must have a change in the mentality of your middle and lower-middle classes, who have been poor for so long they automatically stash any increase in wealth in the bank or in their pillowcase. They spend only when they feel very confident about the future. The Americans spend – and they borrow and spend – whether or not they are confident about their future. There’s a basic assumption in America that things will turn out all right.
Poor people still behave like poor people even when they are getting rich. You just want to accumulate more wealth and have more savings because you have been poor for so long,
see their weaknesses in two fields. No governance institutions – the individual is stronger than the person who occupies the office. Second, they don’t have the rule of law, it’s the rule of the individual in charge. So every change of leader can mean a change of several echelons or levels of the people at the top.
it possible, for example, that some Chinese students now studying in the top US universities, bright sparks, might come back to China and…
When they come back they are slotted into their proper place, which is in the middle levels, and by the time they get to the top, they’ve already been absorbed by the system and they will act like their superiors have done.
problem. I mean if they allowed middle management to go to America and come back and take over and run a different system, then I think it’s possible,
Well, I believe it will slow down. When the resources of cheap labour are exhausted, they will slow down.
It’s an export-driven economy and not an economy driven by domestic consumption as in the US, and the US wants them to convert to that system. I think eventually they will be forced to convert to that system but then you must have a change in the mentality of your middle and lower-middle classes. You must encourage them to consume and not simply save. I’m quite convinced that in the end domestic consumption is their only ultimate source of sustainable growth. But for that to happen, you must also redistribute growth, because those in the inland provinces don’t have the spending power. You must
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America will, over time, find it ever harder to exert its influence. It will not be business as usual. Proximity is the key in this case. China has the advantage of being in the region and will be able to project power much more easily in Asia. For America to do so from 8,000 miles away is a completely different
Chinese population – 1.3 billion, compared to 314 million Americans –
But the power shift will not happen quickly because of superior American
They called it the Pacific Pivot. Writing in Foreign Policy, President Barack Obama’s Secretary of State Hillary Clinton revealed the thinking behind this new policy: “Open markets in Asia provide the United States with unprecedented opportunities for investment, trade, and access to cutting-edge technology… Strategically, maintaining peace and security across the Asia-Pacific is increasingly crucial to global progress, whether through defending freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, countering the proliferation efforts of North Korea, or ensuring transparency in the military activities
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“the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.
do not see the Chinese being able to squeeze the Americans out of the Western Pacific.
We are in a strategic position at the centre of an archipelago, a region that America cannot possibly ignore if it wants to keep up its influence in the Asia-Pacific. And even as we grow our ties with the Chinese, they will not be able to stop us from maintaining strong economic, social, cultural and security ties with America. The Chinese know that the more they press down on Southeast Asian nations, the closer they will get to America. If the Chinese would like to make Singapore a port of call for its warships, as the Americans are doing, we will welcome them. But we will not choose sides by
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Nearly five decades have elapsed and history has shown that the ability to speak English and to communicate with the
world has turned out to be one of the most important factors in Singapore’s growth story. English
It is the rest of the world that will sustain Singapore and provide us with prosperity – not just Americans, but also the British, the Germans, the French, the Dutch, the Australians and so on.
America is, by far, the more creative society. And the fact that the Americans are having an internal debate about whether or not they are declining is a healthy sign. It means they have not become complacent.
Firstly, the US is a more attractive society than China can ever be. Every year, thousands of bright and restless immigrants are allowed into America, settle and become successful in various fields. These immigrants are innovative and usually more adventurous, or they would not have left their own countries.
China and other nations will eventually have to adopt parts of the American model of attracting talent to fit their circumstances.
This is an age in which you will no longer have military contests between great nations because the nations know that they will destroy each other if they do that. But there will be economic and technological contests, and talent is the key ingredient in those contests.
America is a society that attracts people and retains them.
One reason why China will always be a less effective magnet for talent is language. Chinese is a much harder language to learn than English.
It is monosyllabic and every word has four or five tones. And when you do not know the language, you are unable to communicate.
