To better determine the outcome probabilities in highly complex systems like banking or climate, you may first have to take a step back and try to make sense of the whole system before you can even try to create a decision tree or cost-benefit analysis for a particular subset or situation. Systems thinking describes this act, when you attempt to think about the entire system at once. By thinking about the overall system, you are more likely to understand and account for subtle interactions between components that could otherwise lead to unintended consequences from your decisions.
