Sorry, you must be a member of this group to do that.
We started this chapter explaining that to be wrong less, you need to both work at getting better over time (antifragile) and make fewer avoidable mistakes in your thinking (unforced errors). Unfortunately, there are a lot of mental traps that you actively need to try to avoid, such as relying too much on recent information (availability bias), being too wed to your existing position (confirmation bias), and overstating the likelihood of your desired outcome (optimistic probability bias). As Feynman warned Caltech graduates in 1974: “You must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to
...more
