Not Working: Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?

by David G. Blanchflower

The OECD (2016b) notes that once again most studies tend to find no or only a small negative impact on the employment rate: “The majority of empirical studies on the labour market impact of migration look at the aggregate or average local impact, rather than on concrete case studies. Most of these studies find no effect of immigration on local wages nor on employment, while a minority find a small effect, either negative or positive. This is due to a number of reasons. First, migrants’ skills often complement those of the native-born. Second, some native-born residents move up the occupational ladder in response to new foreign-born arrivals. Third, some previous residents move to other areas in reaction to new inflows. Fourth, any local impact is likely to be diluted by adjustment processes, for example changes in the industrial composition and production technologies as well as capital flows” (109).29