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Whether or not experience inevitably led to expertise, they agreed, depended entirely on the domain in question. Narrow experience made for better chess and poker players and firefighters, but not for better predictors of financial or political trends, or of how employees or patients would perform. The domains Klein studied,
Wicked World Was Made
Specialization may work in a safe world but not in wicked world. Exposure to broad field key . Learning not just throughb experience but also through abstract examples. Learning shiud enable categorical thinking and ijnter-disciplinary thinking
haven’t seen what people do in other cities,” one said, “so how can I ask?”
Lack of abstract thinking limits the kind of questions asked
majors did the best overall. Economics is a broad field by nature, and econ professors have been shown to apply the reasoning principles they’ve learned to problems outside their area.
Japanese word to describe chalkboard writing that tracks conceptual connections over the course of collective problem solving: bansho.)
Desirable difficulties like testing and spacing make knowledge stick.
Deep analogical thinking is the practice of recognizing conceptual similarities in multiple domains or scenarios that may seem to have little in common on the surface.
starting out by making loads of diverse analogies, Kepler style, would naturally lead to the outside view and improve decisions.
combat inside view
Using a full “reference class” of analogies—the pillar of the
deep structure.
successful problem solvers are more able to determine the deep structure of a problem before they proceed to match a strategy to it.
problem solving “begins with the typing of the problem.”
Instead of asking whether someone is gritty, we should ask when they are. “If you get someone into a context that suits them,” Ogas said, “they’ll more likely work hard and it will look like grit from the outside.”
“All of the strengths-finder stuff, it gives people license to pigeonhole themselves or others in ways that just don’t take into account how much we grow and evolve and blossom and discover new things,”
Along the way, InnoCentive realized it could help seekers tailor their posts to make a solution more likely. The trick: to frame the challenge so that it attracted a diverse array of solvers. The more likely a challenge was to appeal not just to scientists but also to attorneys and dentists and mechanics, the more likely it was to be solved.
“The people who win a Kaggle health competition have no medical training, no biology training, and they’re also often not real machine learning experts,” Pedro Domingos, a computer science professor and machine learning researcher, told me. “Knowledge is a double-edged sword. It allows you to do some things, but it also makes you blind to other things that you could do.”
The best forecasters view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. Their
forecasters can improve by generating a list of separate events with deep structural similarities, rather than focusing only on internal details of the specific event in question.
