The exact state of a glass of boiling-hot water may be unknown to you—indeed, your ignorance of its exact state is what makes the molecules’ kinetic energy “heat,” rather than work waiting to be extracted like the momentum of a spinning flywheel. So the water might cool down your hand instead of heating it up, with probability ~0. Decide to ignore the laws of thermodynamics and stick your hand in anyway, and you’ll get burned. “But you don’t know that!” I don’t know it with certainty, but it is mandatory that I expect it to happen. Probabilities are not logical truths, but the laws of
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