Our culture hasn’t internalized the lessons of probability theory—that the correct answer to questions like “How sure can I be that Bob has a crush on me?” is just as logically constrained as the correct answer to a question on an algebra quiz or in a geology textbook. Our clichés are out of step with the discovery that “what beliefs should I hold?” has an objectively right answer, whether your question is “does my classmate have a crush on me?” or “do I have an immortal soul?” There really is a right way to change your mind. And it’s a precise way.
