And this is not easily reconciled with Bayesianism’s notion of an exactly right probability estimate, one with no flex or room for whims, that exists both before and after the experiment. Bayesianism doesn’t match well with the ancient and traditional reason for Science—the distrust of grand schemas, the presumption that people aren’t rational enough to get things right without definite and unmistakable experimental evidence. If we were all perfect Bayesians, we wouldn’t need a social process of science.
