Weighing what you know and don’t know, what you can and can’t predict, making a deliberate effort to avoid absurdity bias and widen confidence intervals, pondering which questions are the important ones, trying to adjust for possible Black Swans and think of (formerly) unknown unknowns. Jumping to “The Matrix: Yes or No?” skips over all of this.
You are using your own arguments against yourself here with the first few predictions mentioned in the beginning.
