Mark Gerstein

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Does it matter if Monty Hall reminds you that there is a goat behind one of these doors, or if he proves it by showing you a goat? You haven’t learned anything useful about the door you did choose. There is still a one-third chance that it is the winning door, and therefore, the probability that the last door is the winner has risen to two-thirds. You should switch.
Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
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