Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change

by Jared Diamond

A mere two nations (China and India) account for one-third of the world’s population; another pair of nations (the U.S. and China) account for 41% of the world’s CO2 emissions and economic output; and five nations or entities (China, India, the U.S., Japan, and the European Union) account for 60% of emissions and outputs. China and the U.S. already reached an agreement in principle on CO2 emissions. That bilateral agreement was then joined by India, Japan, and the European Union in the Paris agreement that came into force in 2016. Of course the Paris agreement wasn’t enough, because it lacked a serious enforcement mechanism, and because the U.S. government in the following year announced its intention to pull out. But the Paris agreement is nevertheless likely to serve as a model or starting point for reaching an improved future agreement. Even if the world’s 200 other nations with smaller outputs don’t join such a future agreement, just a five-way agreement among the five biggest players could go a long way towards solving the emissions problem. That’s because the five biggest players can then put pressure on the other 200, e.g., by imposing trade tariffs and carbon taxes on countries that don’t adhere.