‘These are really smart people, working with data, and trying really hard to do a good job.’ But NASA’s errors demonstrate just how easily your perception of risk radically shifts without you even recognising that a change has occurred. The organisation was blind to the possibility of disaster. The reason appears to be a form of cognitive miserliness known as the outcome bias, which leads us to focus on the actual consequences of a decision without even considering the alternative possible results. Like many of the other cognitive flaws that afflict otherwise intelligent people, it’s really a
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