Debjeet Das

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Training in past probabilities: People who looked at probabilities of similar situations in the past were better able to assess the current probability, avoiding the base rate fallacy (see Chapter 5). •Taking time: The more time people took to make the prediction, the better they did. • Revising predictions: Forecasters who continually revised their predictions based on new information successfully avoided confirmation bias
Super Thinking: Upgrade Your Reasoning and Make Better Decisions with Mental Models
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