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Debjeet Das
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Super Thinking: Upgrade Your Reasoning and Make Better Decisions with Mental Models, by Gabriel Weinberg

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Sometimes you may want something to be true so badly that you fool yourself into thinking it is likely to be true. This feeling is known as optimistic probability
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Super Thinking: Upgrade Your Reasoning and Make Better Decisions with Mental Models
Super Thinking: Upgrade Your Reasoning and Make Better Decisions with Mental Models
by Gabriel Weinberg
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