Predicting winners is an especially hard risk problem. In most businesses, decision makers can rely on data from the past to help them figure out the more fruitful investments that will pay off in the future. A good risk estimate requires data that can do two things: (1) reveal lessons from the past that will be relevant in the future, and (2) predict that certain past outcomes are more likely than others. The nature of moviemaking means its business data lacks both of those things.
