An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk

by Allison Schrager

This value of the safe option also drives many aspects of risky decision making. For example, it explains why some economists now believe mass incarceration may have caused more crime than it prevented. You’d think putting more people in prison would reduce crime. After all, we are taking criminals off the street. But mass incarceration went too far and sent many nonviolent offenders to prison. Even if you are a lightweight criminal, going to prison can change you. You learn lawbreaking skills and gain connections in the criminal world. Once you get out of prison you have more opportunities in crime. What really matters is that the safe option—staying away from crime—is less valuable than it was before you went to prison. Once you are released, your options in the legal world are limited. It’s hard to get a job if you are a convicted felon. Or to put it another way, crime can be even more attractive after you’ve been in prison, especially when compared with a law-abiding life, the risk-free choice. This explains, in part, why about 76 percent of criminals reoffend.