Risk models are valuable, but they can backfire if you assume the unpredictable has become completely predictable. Suppose you decide to take a risk and demand a raise from your boss. If you operate under the assumption you are invaluable, you might threaten to quit. You might be invaluable, but if you go in unaware of some top secret information, like the company is facing financial trouble and planning lay-offs, or if your boss is just having a bad day, you may find yourself out of a job because you didn’t anticipate this in your risk calculation.
