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One man is not likely to see the long-term consequences of his actions in his lifetime.
Modern physics has shifted to focus more on problems of organization and how things may be interrelated.
Ludwig von Bertalanffy, the father of general systems theory,
the phenomena we observe in the world have much in common when considered as a whole rather than just parts in isolation,
Warren Buffet wisely said “Never test the depth of the river with both of your feet.”
diversity is a key component of shielding ourselves from vulnerability and a lack of stability should things go wrong.
Systems can change and react to the environment around them. They respond to changes and find ways to survive when things go wrong. This is true whether it is a living or nonliving system.
In a system, just knowing about a problem’s existence isn’t enough to lead to an informed decision.
It can also happen that the real purpose of the system ends up being something that was not wanted or willfully perpetuated by any of the elements.
Changing the interconnections, on the other hand, has a far greater impact on the system as a whole.
there will inevitably be a delay between when a flow starts working and the level of the stock responds.
Delays can also buy us time to observe and reflect on what is happening in the system’s behavior and make changes to things that aren’t working before it is too late and major damage has been done.
The existence of stocks makes it possible for flows to act independently of one another and to be out of balance with one another in the short term.
Just because a feedback mechanism exists doesn’t mean it’s functioning well.
Reinforcing feedback loops magnify whatever change is placed on them, causing the increases or decreases to be greater.
Reinforcing feedback loops are self-supporting and can multiply very quickly.
Systems are dynamic and cause their own behavior through feedback loops.
Thus, models should never be considered the final reality, but rather a tool that gets us closer to seeing and understanding the real objective of a complex system.
The Theory of Constraints[xviii] recognizes that every system is limited by constraints, and by nature, there will always be one constraint that exerts more pressure on a system than all of the others.
Our bottleneck needs our primary focus until we can correct it. Only then will we really be ready to move on.
Use mind mapping to identify bottlenecks. Remember, first design a causal loop diagram, and then identify human decisions among the links. Ask “Why is this decision being made?” Answer it. Then analyze if this decision is prolonging, triggering, or reinforcing the existence of the problem or not. Dig deeper
Problems in systems rarely occur in a vacuum. They have connections to both the past and the future.
Systems of all types that are high functioning have three characteristics in common: they are resilient, self-organizing, or they are a thriving hierarchy.
Our ultimate goal should be to ensure that systems can persevere through adversity with as little unnatural input as possible.
All of the subsystems are connected within the system, but each individual subsystem has its closest connections within.
Hierarchies evolve bottom up, from part to whole.
The foundational guiding purpose of a hierarchy is to help the smaller subsystems function better and have the support they need.
Studying long-term behavior is a window into the underlying structure within the system
A system’s structure is formed by its stocks, flows, and feedback loops.
Avalanches “need” three parts to happen: snow, a sloped surface and a trigger.
Daniel Aronson, in his article Overview of Systems Thinking
Open systems have no boundaries
There are limits in place around every system. Our challenge as systems thinkers is to figure out what those limits are and to recognize that growth either diminishes those limits or intensifies them, ultimately changing what limits exist.
As systems grow and develop over time, they interact with each other and impact their own limits. This creates a coevolving dynamic system.
A deeper understanding of the limits currently in place in a system as well as the next potentially limiting factor is not enough to guarantee that the system will continue to grow forever.
Delays are a fact of life in systems.
Theodore Roosevelt once said, “Do what you can with what you have where you are.” This could be a fair summary of what bounded rationality is.
Bounded rationality means that people usually make sensible decisions based on the information that they have.
The quality of their decisions is only as good as the inf...
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Robert H. Schuller illustrates this point well. He said, “Anyone can count the seeds in an apple, but only God can count the number of apples in a seed.”
there are limits on our decision-making abilities, including our intellectual and reasoning abilities, the quality of the information we have, and the amount of time we have before the decision must be made.
Leverage points are the pieces in a system where making a small change could result in a big difference in behavior.
A parameter is a characteristic that helps to define and evaluate a system.
When we alter the guidelines by which we judge the success of a system or the way that we define the system and its purpose, it can result in major changes to the whole system.
Overall, changing parameters in a system is not a quick or impactful way of intervention.
A stock that acts to stabilize a system is known as a buffer.
If we increase the size of the buffer, we get more stability in our system. There is a fine line though. If the size of our buffer becomes too large, we risk having an unyielding and stagnant system resistant to change.
Big buffers like those respond slowly, repairing and expanding them takes time, and they are not cheap to maintain. Since they are slow to respond and resistant to change, they do not make good leverage points.
A system’s rules define the area it is tasked to work within, its limits, and how much freedom it has. Rules are powerful.
When things go wrong or right in a system and you are trying to find out why, take a look at the rules that are in place and who has the power to make those rules.
