Macro Ops

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Classically, the collapse in imports brings the current account into a surplus of 2 percent of GDP, rising from a deficit of -6 percent of GDP about 18 months into the crisis. In the earlier stages of the crisis exports play a smaller role; they actually tend to contract during the worst of the crisis (as other countries are sometimes seeing economic slowdowns too). They rebound in the subsequent years.
A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises
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