Of course, cycles work in both directions, and the depths of the Global Financial Crisis gave me an opportunity to invert the old saying and describe the three stages of a bear market in “The Tide Goes Out” (March 2008): the first stage, when just a few thoughtful investors recognize that, despite the prevailing bullishness, things won’t always be rosy, the second stage, when most investors recognize that things are deteriorating, and the third stage, when everyone’s convinced things can only get worse.
