The reasonableness of the effort at cycle timing depends simply on what you expect of it. If you frequently try to discern where we are in the cycle in the sense of “what’s going to happen tomorrow?” or “what’s in store for us next month?” you’re unlikely to find success. I describe such an effort as “trying to be cute.” No one can make fine distinctions like those often enough or consistently right enough to add materially to investment results. And no one knows when the market developments that efforts at cycle positioning label “probable” will materialize.
