Let me restate that: A study with a p-value of 0.01 may have only a 50 percent chance in an exact replication of producing another p-value of 0.01 (not the 99 percent chance that most people would assume). Put another way, people (even experienced scientists) tend to think of the p-value as a predictive value, but it isn’t. It was never meant to be. It’s only a smell test to see if the data are at all interesting or just random noise.
