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Let’s say that 1 percent of forty-year-old women have breast cancer. Let us further say that mammograms are 80 percent sensitive (they will come out positive 80 percent of the time with patients who actually have breast cancer). They are also 90 percent specific (they will be negative 90 percent of the time with patients who do not have breast cancer). These numbers are pretty good for a screening test.
The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe: How To Know What's Really Real in a World Increasingly Full of Fake
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