Theories of the Policy Process

by Christopher M. Weible

I. Social constructions matter in public policy: Although it is true that there is a reality populated by objects and processes independent of human perceptions, it is also true that what those objects and processes mean varies in terms of how humans perceive them.

II. Bounded relativity: Social constructions of policy-related objects and processes vary to create different policy realities; however, this variation is bounded (e.g., by belief systems, ideologies, norms, normative axioms) and thus is not random.

III. Policy narratives have generalizable structural elements:

specific generalizable structures such as plots and characters that can be identified in m...

IV. Policy narratives operate simultaneously at three levels: For purposes of analyses, the NPF divides policy narratives into three interacting categories: microlevel (individual level), mesolevel (group and coalitional...

V. Homo narrans model of the individual: Narrative is assumed to play a central role in how individuals process information, communicate, and reason.

all of the assumptions combined form the foundation for the NPF’s approach to the study of public policy.

The NPF assumes that policy narratives operate simultaneously at three levels of analysis (see assumption IV above).

At the microlevel the researcher is concerned with the individual and how individuals both inform and are informed by policy narratives.

At the mesolevel, the researcher is focused on the policy narratives that policy actors who compose groups and advocacy coalitions deploy over time within a policy subsystem.

Finally, at the macrolevel the researcher is interested in how policy narratives embedded in cultures and in...

Homo narrans, the model of the individual invoked by the NPF, identifies ten postulates derived from existing and well-established research findings and theories in a host of academic fields.

The homo narrans model is best understood as an evolving psychological model of the individual that acknowledges and tests the primacy of affect and narration in human decision making and cognitive processes.

these are the ten postulates that form the foundation of homo narrans

1. Boundedly rational: Drawing on the classic work of Herbert Simon (e.g., Simon 1947), the NPF understands individuals to make decisions under conditions of limited time and limited information.

2. Heuristics: Given bounded rationality, individuals rely on information shortcuts to process information and to facilitate decision making. These shortcuts, known as heuristics,

3. Primacy of affect: As political scientist Bryan Jones (2001, 73–74) observes, emotions play a critical role in focusing attention

In this context, emotion—termed “affect” in academic parlance—is the positive to negative value that an individual ascribes to stimuli.

In short, emotions precede reason and direct attention.

4. Two kinds of cognition: According to psychologist Daniel Kahneman (2011), cognition (or, simply, “thinking”) can be characterized as operating simultaneously, but not equally, within two systems. The first system, System 1, refers to unconscious, involuntary, and automatic thought processes

majority of human cognition is handled by System 1, which serves to inform or alert System 2 via affective cues (e.g., fear, anger).

System 2 cognition is also always active but has been evolutionarily primed to run in a low-effort mode to conserve energy unless called upon. When engaged, System 2 focuses attention on cognitively cumbersome tasks that are beyond the capacity of System 1.

individuals cannot perform multiple System 2 operations simultaneously; rather, these cognitive tasks must be conducted serially.

System 2 can recondition System 1 through updating, System 1 is stubbornly resistant to change and also serves as the default mode of human cognition.

5. Hot cog...

If a concept or object is unfamiliar, individuals will perform a “search” in order to assign affect to the new concept or object in terms of their existing understanding of the world.

6. Confirmation and disconfirmation bias: Individuals engage in confirmation bias where they treat congruent evidence that agrees with their priors (beliefs, knowledge, etc.) as stronger than incongruent evidence (Taber and Lodge 2006), and process congruent stimuli more quickly than incongruent stimuli (Lodge and Taber 2005);

disconfirmation bias, where evidence that is incongruent with an individual’s priors is counterargued (Taber and Lodge 2006) and takes longer to process than evidence that is congruent (Lodge and Taber 2005).

7. Selective exposure: Individuals select sources and information that are congruent with what they already believe (Kund...

8. Identity-protective cognition: Selective exposure, confirmation bias, and disconfirmation bias are conditioned by knowledge and prior beliefs and are used by individuals in a way that protects their prior identity, or who they already understand themselves to be (e.g., Kahan et al. 2007).

9. Primacy of groups and networks: Individuals do not process information in a vacuum; rather, the social, professional, familial, and cultural networks and groups in which they find themselves immersed play a vital role in helping individuals assign affect to social and political concepts and objects (e.g., Kahan and Braman 2006; Kurzban 2010).

10. Narrative cognition: Psychologist Donald E. Polkinghorne (1988, 11) writes that narrative is the primary means by which human beings make sense of and situate themselves in the world, and in doing so narrative renders human existence meaningful.

narratives are the primary communication device within and across groups and networks; internal to the individual (endogenous), narratives are also the preferred means for organizing thoughts, memories, affect, and other cognitions (Berinsky and Kinder 2006; Jones and Song 2014).

it provides essential linkages between System 1 and System 2 cognition.

Proceeding from the homo narrans model of the individual, the NPF makes the empirically testable conjecture that narrative likely plays an important role in public policy.

Micro Hypotheses 1 and 3: Narrative breach and congruence and incongruence. Several NPF studies (e.g., Ertas 2015; Shanahan et al. 2014) have leveraged hypotheses 1 and 3 to assess narrative persuasiveness as two countervailing conditions: when the narrative runs counter to (breach or incongruence) or supports (congruence) a person’s expectations, preferences, or beliefs.

breaching narratives move individuals away from priors and toward the preferences and beliefs within the narrative; similarly, congruent narratives intensify an individual’s policy stances and beliefs.

However, recent research (Lybecker, McBeth, and Stoutenborough 2016; McBeth et al. 2016) has found that breaching and congruency are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

characters can effectively breach policy preferences by positioning congruent characters—those who align with one’s individual identity—with an opposing (breaching) policy preference.

certain expectations about how business is talked about; narrative theory refers to such conventions of thinking as canonicity (Herman 2002, 2003).

Now suppose this same person encounters an environmentalist narrative that casts business as a hero, invokes markets to protect the environment, and paints competition as the social engine that makes all of this happen. Such a narrative would be congruent in a worldview sense for this hypothetical person but breaching in terms of the individual’s expectations about the environmentalist narrative.

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Micro Hypothesis 2: Narrative transportation. Narrative transportation “is related to a narrative’s ability to mentally transport the reader into the world created by the narrative” (Jones 2014a, 648; also see Green and Brock 2005).

determined to be good by the extent to which the reader/viewer/listener can imagine him-/herself surrounded by the scene and embroiled in the plot alongside the characters.

Micro Hypothesis 4: Narrator trust. Ertas (2015) conducted a microlevel study regarding charter schools and found that narrator trust increased shifts in policy preferences toward the preferred policy presented in the narrative, but that this occurred to a greater extent when there was also congruence.

Micro Hypothesis 5: The power of characters. Characters have been found to play an important role in shaping individual preferences.

the hero character is a primary driver of narra...

respondents tended to have more positive affect for hero characters than for other characters, regardless of their priors. Moreover, as positive affect for the hero character increased, so, too, did the respondents’ willingness to accept the assumptions imbedded in the narrative and the argued-for policy solutions.

If we are to understand how, when, and why policy narratives shape public policy at the larger meso- and macroscales, we need an accurate and refined understanding of how narrative works at an individual level in order to make valid assumptions at larger scales of analyses.

A plethora of policy process research today focuses on our modern-day agora, known as the policy subsystem.

agora narrans is NPF’s mesolevel examination of the strategic construction and communication of policy narratives by policy actors8 organized in a variety of ways: charismatic individuals, groups, constellations of actors, coalitions, and so on.