The Rational Optimist (P.S.)

by Matt Ridley

Think of it this way. After the world population first hit a billion in (best guess) 1804, the human race had another 123 years to work out how to feed the next billion, the two billion milestone being reached in 1927. The next billions took thirty-three, fourteen, thirteen and twelve years respectively to arrive. Yet despite the accelerating pace, the world food supply in calories per head improved dramatically. The rate at which the billions are being added is now falling. The seven billionth person won’t be born till 2013, fourteen years after the six billionth, the eight billionth will come fifteen years after that and the nine billionth another twenty-six years after that. The ten billionth, it is now officially forecast, will never come at all.